Last night I had a very interesting meeting with the Founder (and his main marketing man) of one of the largest trading education groups in the region. Together with two very good mates, we held interesting discussions on business opportunities, trading and property investment.

During the discussion, I was asked about the state of the property market in Melbourne since I am constantly looking at that market. Without a single hesitation, I answered, ‘I don’t know’. The reality is it didn’t quite matter to me the state of the property market. As Singaporeans are pretty used to the huge ‘peaks and troughs’ of the Singapore property market, the state of the market becomes a critical topic for discussion. In Australia, yes prices do plunge, but statistically, prices don’t plunge 30%!

I recalled a statement made by Christopher Joye, Director of Rismark International in The Weekend Australian Review, 1-2 November 2008. He mentioned, “Sensationalist and unsubstantiated claims predicting large house price falls in Australia ignore the empirical facts that house prices are determined by both demand and supply”. In my opinion, there’s already a shortage of accommodation in Melbourne as witnessed by record levels of population growth, fueled mainly by immigration numbers, coupled with the crisis and drop in building approval rates, the only confirmed trend is rents are going to rise.

I looked at property investment from a ‘holding cost’ point of view. I do care if the price is right, by doing some comparables around the estate. But that’s as far as I go. I do not professed to be a statistical Guru, or a full time property market researcher because that’s not my job. It’s difficult to say how market has performed, because to me median prices are not the true indication of the state of the property market.

Put it this way, you acquired a property. At settlement, you secured financing and the valuer came back with value equal to or higher than the contract price (usually valuers will cheat by looking at the contract price so they rarely return a value higher than contract price). You financed it and it’s cashflow positive and you continue to replicate what you were doing without max-ing out on your borrowing capacity.

So, what happens if property prices drop?

Well, as long as you keep up with repayments, banks don’t really bother you. The critical thing is to have a tenant secured and that can be organized by a professional property manager.

It makes sense to me…and I sure it does to you as well…so how’s the market performing again, mate…? Have a great weekend ahead!

 Another round of rate cut by 100 basis points brought relief to home owners, property developers and investors. In a widely anticipated move by the Reserve Bank of Australia, it announced a rate cut of a full percentage point, bringing interest rate down to 4.25%. It’s the third consecutive rate cut since October 2008.

Banks are expected to pass on the benefits of the rate cuts to consumers and business owners. If banks pass on the savings to consumers, there would be a $250 per month savings in interest cost on a $300,000 loan.

For property investors on a standard variable rate, more rate cuts are expected come Feb 2009 (RBA does not meet in Jan) and increased rental, you can be assured of an improved cashflow from your property portfolio.

For full article report, click HERE.

It’s no secret that countercyclical acquisition is the right way to profit massively especially for instruments where you are betting on capital appreciation. However, the element of fear lingers on the minds of investors and you may end up not doing anything. What you may have missed are hordes of opportunities to profit from the current situation.

Last week, a mate of mine was thinking of property acquisition in Australia. We spoke some 5 months ago and he wasn’t really ready then. However, this time, he is ‘armed’ and ready to take advantage of the current situation. He asked a very good question and I am sure many of you may have the same question in your mind.

What happens if I acquire properties now and the value dips?

It’s a valid question. If you have been a regular reader of my blog posts, you would have known that I am not a property trader. I don’t encourage anyone to trade/speculate properties in Australia for capital appreciation. The tax system is not in your favour in the short term. Rather my focus has always been structuring the finance in such a way that maximized cashflow for your entire property portfolio.

The risk with any property portfolio is the ‘HOLDING COSTS’. It’s defined as the amount of money that is required for you to continue to hold on to your entire portfolio. Just focus on the cashflow/holding costs and you’ll be fine. There are enough instruments/options for you to leverage on. Regardless of conditions in the market, as long as you keep up your mortgage/interest repayments, you should not be unduly worried.

So focus on the cashflow in your property, instead of focusing ‘what happens if value dips…’Nobody can predict where the market is going at the moment. I am not bold/silly enough to do that. All that I can say is if you keep your portfolio, the values will be better off than what they are today in 10, 20 or more years’ time…

Drop me a line or two with your comments, EMAIL me…have a great working week ahead!

Over the weekend, there are at least 7-8 property firms advertising for property launches in Singapore. Well, you can’t blame these property firms for thinking there’s a good opportunity here in Singapore. After all, the positives are still there as far as Singaporeans are concerned. Most are hurt in the stock market, and history showed that whenever ‘doom and gloom’ sentiments are prevalent, there are still opportunistic investors who are armed and ready to take advantage of present conditions to enter the market. However, if I am seeking to invest in Australia, I will be ‘dramatically confused’ if I want to base my decision to invest based on projects advertised.

After putting all conditions in place, I have a near-to-perfect plan for anyone wanting to start acquiring properties now. In PPG (PPG International & PPG Asia), we used the Wealth Builder System to determine the ‘BC’ of a client before recommending the next course of action. Nobody else does that in the market. If you are a serious investor, you must get to know this. The easiest way is to EMAIL me to get in touch with me. Be prepared to leave your contact details as well.

Assuming your BC is determined, you can now go ’shopping’.

I see the following happening:

1. Interest rate will fall to at 4% or 3.5% by the first half of 2009.

2. The rise in interest rate later on will signal the reversal of the economy.

I quote Warren Buffet’s saying, ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’. No doubts about it, people are fearful about investing now. The most sinful thing is to do NOTHING, because that means your wealth has got no opportunity to grow. Of course, if you have not much wealth, it is quite understandable that you do nothing right now. Otherwise, you may be over-analyzing and you may be ‘beaten’ by the market before you do anything.

Every advertisement says the AUD has dropped 30% against the SGD and it’s on par with SGD now. If you have buy something now, it’s cheaper. Technically it’s true. Even the AUD depreciates against the SGD further, in my personal opinion, the AUD will still appreciate against SGD in the long run. The indicators are simple: Oil price cannot remain at this level, interest rate cannot keep dropping, and commodity prices cannot remain stagnant. Once the world’s biggest consumerism recovers, demand comes back again, the economy will recover. However, I am not bold enough to predict when.

If you buy something that settles next year (2009) to take advantage of low interest rates in AUD, your holding costs will be significantly reduced, cashflow improved dramatically. Remember the biggest risks pertaining to property is HOLDING COSTS! It’s not the value of the property! If you manage holding costs well, you will be able to grow your property portfolio systematically.

Once the interest rate starts rising, this is where you can convert to a fixed rate. With a fixed interest rate, you are assured of virtually the same holding costs/cashflow in your property. And to put the icing on the cake, if you have another property that is financed in another currency e.g. SGD, you can now hedge your risk. There are just so many permutations to build up your property portfolio. I guess it’s due to my engineering background. I love manipulating the permutations to help my investors build their portfolio. It’s problem solving to the highest level…

If you need any independent advice, do EMAIL me immediately.

Home owners have plenty to cheer about when the Reserve Bank of Australia annouced an interest rate cut of 75 basis points bringing the cash rate to 5.25%.  In a widely anticipated move, the RBA went beyond expectations of a 50 basis points cut and lowered the burden of mortgage repayments by home owners by going on another bold move to cut interest rate by 75 basis points following a full 100 basis points cut last month.

It’s expected to cut rate again in December to stimulate the economy in the light of a global financial crisis. For further news, click on this link: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24602026-12377,00.html

Lately, some Aussie property investors asked me if it is advisable to take out a loan in SGD since the AUDSGD has plunged to below 1.0000 on several occasions. It remains to be seen if the AUD will rebound in the short term. Analysts from major banks and even bloomberg has given some indications and as far as I am concerned, I feel there is still pretty much a lot of uncertainty in the market.

To make an objective statement; if you are savvy with how financing in an alternative currency works and you are confident of keeping a close watch on the market and you have strategies to know when you should switch, then go for it. If you are a professional who is busy with daily work routines and meetings, the last thing you want is for the banks to call you for a margin call.

Banks in Australia has taken some initiative to safeguard their position given the volatility of the market. e.g. some banks have lowered their LVR to 65% in the light of the AUDSGD fluctuations. This is strictly for residential properties only.

If I am first time investor, I would settle my property with 75% LVR in AUD. With an expected rate cut in Nov by another 50 basis points, interest rate is coming down. There is very little risks since AUD has taken a dive and with a weakening global economy and weak commodity price, it is quite prudent to take up an AUD loan. Once the dust settles, I would switch at an appropriate time. I cannot be more conservative….

I have written an ebook to help some of investors to tide through this period with some strategies. It’s the first version and at the time of writing this blog post, I am already preparing for second version of the ebook. If you wish to know more about the opportunities and risks involved in multi-currency loans, do drop me an email with your name.

I will advise the steps accordingly so that you can download the ebook.

In what was a surprise to everyone, the Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA), they have announced a 1 per cent rate cut at 2:30pm today to lower the Federal cash Rate to 6%. At the time of writing this post, none of the big 4 Australian banks have decided if they will pass the interest savings to consumers.

It is the single biggest rate cut since May 1992.

The RBA is clearly forwarding looking. In light of what’s happening in US and Europe and the worsening of the financial crisis, the last thing the central bank wants is to go through the nightmare their counterparts in US have gone through. I applaud their bold decision. With borrowing costs reportedly to have increased ten times, this piece of news couldn’t have come more timely. Let’s see what happens next…

The AUD/SGD has nosedived to 1.0650 spot at 10:05am (GMT+8). It means it is cheaper now to acquire Aussie properties. On the other hand, those with SGD loans, do watch out for calls from your RM for top-ups for your loans.

With the federal cash rate at an all time high in 12 years in Australia, investors are questioning if this is an ideal time to enter the property market.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on the 1st Wednesday of every month to determine if they should raise or lower the federal cash rate based on inflationary figures as well as the performance of the economy. To keep inflation in check, the RBA will tend to increase interest rate by no more than a quarter percent each time. Banks will follow suit to increase the mortgage lending rates to investors or homeowners that are on standard variable rates. The norm is for bank to increase lending rates in tandem with the increase in interest rates by RBA.

For investors who are looking at entering the market, the high interest rate might not necessarily be a deterrent. The rationale is simple, with exceptionally high inflation due to high oil prices throughout the world, raw material prices have increased. The costs of construction have risen significantly due to those increases in their individual components. It means that the cost of building would have risen as well. The fundamental for real estate is that prices of real estate very seldom go below replacement costs.

What exactly is replacement cost?

It is the cost of land component and the building component combined e.g. if the land costs $400 per sq ft and the building is $350 per sq ft, the basic costs excluding financing and all other costs is $750 per sq ft for the piece of real estate (in this case, an apartment is calculated this way), a selling price of $800 per sq ft can rarely go wrong.

In the current market facing high inflationary pressures, most off-the-plan projects would have the buffer for increase in costs built-in in the prices. It means that if a property is sold to you at $450,000 today for a project that will be completed in 2 years’ time, it means that it is really worth $450,000 in 2 years’ time taking the rise in the built in. It is perfectly all right when you are on the right side of the cycle, meaning on the up trend property cycle. However, things might go pear-shaped if the property market took a turn for the worse come settlement when valuers do a valuation for your property in 2 years’ time.

Things will be different if you are buying a completed property or a property that is under construction with a few more months to settlement. The logic is simple.

When everyone shuns the property market because of high interest rates, they resort to renting. Rental yields in most residential units are 4.5%-5% per annum as compared to current mortgage lending rates of 9.35% (at the point of writing this article), therefore renting is a more viable option than buying a place to stay. The demand for rental properties drove the vacancy rates to an all time low. That doesn’t mean nobody’s buying! It means that people are buying as investment properties but not really for them to live in.

If you can get into the market today, you stand to enjoy high rental yields today. Most of the projects are off the plans and will only be completed in 2010 or 2011, getting into the market today ensures you are not competing with those rental properties when they settle in 2-3 years’ time.

The issue of high inflation will not impact you that much because you have secured a rental property at today’s price and in 2-3 years’ time, should things stay status quo, you can expect your property to rise in value because everything else would have risen. The price that you pay can never be replicated, at least that is the rationale for buying a completed property today.

Ask any seasoned property investors who have accumulated quite a sizeable property portfolio and it is no surprise they are rooting strongly for completed stocks instead of off-the-plan ones.

However, the financial circumstances of individuals are vastly different. The best option is to determine your goals and objectives first before embarking on the journey to financial abundance through property investment.

In a move that is widely anticipated, the Reserve Bank of Australia adjusted the interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%. It is certainly good news for Australian property investors.

For more information, click on the link below.
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24281681-5016110,00.html

AUSTRALIA is set to experience the slowest economic growth in seven years which would make the case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, a survey shows.

The Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold at 7.25 per cent in August for the fifth consecutive month.

There is a widespread speculation that the RBA will make the move to cut rates by 50 basis point instead of two consecutive cuts of 25 basis points each.

The irony is that property investors are shunning away from the property market and rents are set to climb. Given the inflation levels and high costs of living coupled with the highest interest rate in last 12 years, housing affordability is not going to get any better. Property investors should see a healthy rise in rents with their investment properties over the next 12-18 months as more would-be investors are sitting on the fence, adopting a wait and see attitude.

See beyond what the masses see and sometimes you will see great opportunities come your way.

For the fully story, go to http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24211703-5016110,00.html