ABOUT two years after each census is completed, the Australian Bureau of Statistics produces a set of population projections for all states, territories and capital cities.

This document provides one input to demand modelling by federal and state government departments.

Some states also produce population projections but they generally follow the lead set by the ABS.

In other words, you can’t have a state government projecting growth on a trajectory fundamentally inconsistent with the view expressed by the ABS.

The ABS issued a new set of projections last week. It is an important document for anyone in property or, indeed, in business to understand (it can be downloaded at www.abs.gov.au).

And if you cannot be bothered wading through pages of demographic jargon and reams of figures, here are what I think are the key points.

The previous forecast, issued in June 2004 and based on the 2001 census, shows the Australian population rising from 20.6 million in 2006 to 28.2 million in 2051.

This medium-growth outlook assumed falling fertility and net annual migration of 110,000.

Both these assumptions more or less reflected the prevailing paradigm in fertility and migration trends from the late 1990s.

Under this outlook, Australia would add 7.6 million residents over 45 years: 1.5 million being added to Brisbane, 1.4 million to Melbourne and 1.3 million to Sydney.

Outside the capital cities, Queensland was to add 1.4 million residents (mostly on the Gold Coast).

And South Australia and Tasmania were to actually lose population by mid-century, a scenario that caused consternation at the time.

Indeed, South Australian Premier Mike Rann initiated a program of targeted population growth to which he boldly set metrics to measure the state’s progress.

Well, Rann would be very pleased with the new projections released last week, which show Australia’s population increasing from 20.6 million in 2006 to 34.2 million by 2051, reflecting net growth of 13.5 million.

This, too, is a medium-growth assumption.

Within four years the ABS has changed its medium-growth assumption from 110,000 migrants a year to 180,000 migrants a year.

Pushing the annual net migration assumption a further 70,000 over 45 years delivers an extra 3.2 million residents.

The fertility assumptions have also been raised from 1.7 to 1.8 births per woman.

The bottom line is that there has been a paradigm shift in the way demographers view Australia’s future and the key difference is immigration.

Do you, as a business person, believe Australia can sustain an immigration program at an average rate of 180,000 a year when for the past 50 years this figure has averaged 110,000 a year?

If the answer is “yes” (which is my view) then you should start aligning your business agenda with the new demographic reality.

The reason why I think immigration will accelerate in the first half of the 21st century is that as the baby boomers retire later this decade they will leave a void in the workplace that will create demand for more workers.

Governments will support this flow because of their need to shore up the tax base: a workforce constantly rising converts to a rising tax base.

Economic migrants will, therefore, flow from the developing to the developed world to plug the workforce gap.

This outlook presents challenges for government and opportunities for business.

The challenge for government relates to the provision of infrastructure and the opportunity for business is to deliver the infrastructure.

But the business opportunities go way beyond this.

Under the old forecasts the ACT (effectively Canberra) was to add 74,000 residents by the middle of the century, which basically means the topping out of Gungahlin.

The new outlook has Canberra adding 161,000 residents, which means a new town (of 90,000 residents) will have to be developed to accommodate growth beyond Gungahlin.

The new forecasts lift the existing Melbourne and Sydney forecasts by about 1.4 million each.

The net addition of about 2.5 million residents to each city means (now calm down property people) development beyond the growth boundaries.

The Melbourne 2030 and City of Cities planning documents are not designed to accommodate growth at this scale.

Either Australians must “dense it up” to European proportions, or our cities must expand into greenfields locations and most likely within master-planned communities.

The outlook in the resource states is just as exciting.

Over the 45 years to 2051, Brisbane will add 400,000 more residents than had been previously planned, and Perth will up its projected population by a further 700,000.

I’m not quite sure where Perth will put its extra residents. Perhaps Perthlings will press inland instead of along the coast.

The new projections also bring demographic cheer to the regions.

Non-metropolitan Queensland (dominated by the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast) will accommodate not 1.4 million extra residents over the 45 years to 2051, but 2.3 million.

In just four years the outlook for regional Queensland has delivered a requirement to accommodate 900,000 extra residents.

The two “coasts” will accommodate a large chunk of this, but what does this mean for the supply of and demand for land and water in cities such as Townsville, Mackay, Cairns and Toowoomba?

Even the Northern Territory gets a shake-up in the new projections.

It was to add 145,000 residents over 45 years but the outlook now is for 170,000.

The net increase of 25,000 residents in the forecasts is big news in the Top End because it equates to the equivalent of three new towns the size of Katherine.

But I have, of course, saved the best for last.

Whereas the former projections showed regional Tasmania and South Australia going backwards, the new outlook shows nothing but growth.

Non-metropolitan Tasmania will not lose 50,000 residents as had been thought four years ago, it will in fact add 12,000 residents by 2051.

The Tasmanian seachange shift of 2003 must have set a trend that is expected to continue.

And the same goes for regional South Australia.

Instead of losing 36,000 residents between 2006 and 2051, the new outlook has this region adding 126,000 residents.

This intrigues me.

Apart from Mount Barker in the Adelaide Hills, Victor Harbour on the coast, Whyalla and Mount Gambier, there are few regional towns of any critical mass in South Australia.

The addition of 126,000 people within five decades suggests either the creation of new towns or the morphing of small places into large places in much the same way that Mandurah and Hervey Bay transmogrified in the past three decades.

Anyone up for a spot of new town formation in South Australia?

The new outlook for Australia’s population and its distribution in the 21st century is an exciting paradigm shift for business and government.

At the very least, it requires all existing planning documents to be recast to accommodate growth on a hitherto unparalleled scale.

We need to think boldly about how we manage our burgeoning cities and regions in the future.

And as for business, the prizes will go to those who understand and respond quickest and best to the new paradigm of strong and dispersed population growth throughout the Australian continent.

Article extracted from ‘The Australian’ on 11 September 2008. The contributor is Bernard Salt, a Partner with KPMG; bsalt@kpmg.com.au

With the federal cash rate at an all time high in 12 years in Australia, investors are questioning if this is an ideal time to enter the property market.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on the 1st Wednesday of every month to determine if they should raise or lower the federal cash rate based on inflationary figures as well as the performance of the economy. To keep inflation in check, the RBA will tend to increase interest rate by no more than a quarter percent each time. Banks will follow suit to increase the mortgage lending rates to investors or homeowners that are on standard variable rates. The norm is for bank to increase lending rates in tandem with the increase in interest rates by RBA.

For investors who are looking at entering the market, the high interest rate might not necessarily be a deterrent. The rationale is simple, with exceptionally high inflation due to high oil prices throughout the world, raw material prices have increased. The costs of construction have risen significantly due to those increases in their individual components. It means that the cost of building would have risen as well. The fundamental for real estate is that prices of real estate very seldom go below replacement costs.

What exactly is replacement cost?

It is the cost of land component and the building component combined e.g. if the land costs $400 per sq ft and the building is $350 per sq ft, the basic costs excluding financing and all other costs is $750 per sq ft for the piece of real estate (in this case, an apartment is calculated this way), a selling price of $800 per sq ft can rarely go wrong.

In the current market facing high inflationary pressures, most off-the-plan projects would have the buffer for increase in costs built-in in the prices. It means that if a property is sold to you at $450,000 today for a project that will be completed in 2 years’ time, it means that it is really worth $450,000 in 2 years’ time taking the rise in the built in. It is perfectly all right when you are on the right side of the cycle, meaning on the up trend property cycle. However, things might go pear-shaped if the property market took a turn for the worse come settlement when valuers do a valuation for your property in 2 years’ time.

Things will be different if you are buying a completed property or a property that is under construction with a few more months to settlement. The logic is simple.

When everyone shuns the property market because of high interest rates, they resort to renting. Rental yields in most residential units are 4.5%-5% per annum as compared to current mortgage lending rates of 9.35% (at the point of writing this article), therefore renting is a more viable option than buying a place to stay. The demand for rental properties drove the vacancy rates to an all time low. That doesn’t mean nobody’s buying! It means that people are buying as investment properties but not really for them to live in.

If you can get into the market today, you stand to enjoy high rental yields today. Most of the projects are off the plans and will only be completed in 2010 or 2011, getting into the market today ensures you are not competing with those rental properties when they settle in 2-3 years’ time.

The issue of high inflation will not impact you that much because you have secured a rental property at today’s price and in 2-3 years’ time, should things stay status quo, you can expect your property to rise in value because everything else would have risen. The price that you pay can never be replicated, at least that is the rationale for buying a completed property today.

Ask any seasoned property investors who have accumulated quite a sizeable property portfolio and it is no surprise they are rooting strongly for completed stocks instead of off-the-plan ones.

However, the financial circumstances of individuals are vastly different. The best option is to determine your goals and objectives first before embarking on the journey to financial abundance through property investment.

In a move that is widely anticipated, the Reserve Bank of Australia adjusted the interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%. It is certainly good news for Australian property investors.

For more information, click on the link below.
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24281681-5016110,00.html

AUSTRALIA is set to experience the slowest economic growth in seven years which would make the case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, a survey shows.

The Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold at 7.25 per cent in August for the fifth consecutive month.

There is a widespread speculation that the RBA will make the move to cut rates by 50 basis point instead of two consecutive cuts of 25 basis points each.

The irony is that property investors are shunning away from the property market and rents are set to climb. Given the inflation levels and high costs of living coupled with the highest interest rate in last 12 years, housing affordability is not going to get any better. Property investors should see a healthy rise in rents with their investment properties over the next 12-18 months as more would-be investors are sitting on the fence, adopting a wait and see attitude.

See beyond what the masses see and sometimes you will see great opportunities come your way.

For the fully story, go to http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24211703-5016110,00.html

I went for a tour of the actual site where the development will be built some three weeks ago. Although near the West Gate Freeway, I am pretty sure the apartments will be fitted with double-glazed windows for sound insulation.

Well, for all my blog readers out there, if you need any info or feedback from me, do drop me a note. The Bank apartments is located near 109 Clarenden Street, another high rise development built by the same developer.

Sydney road is one of the most prominent roads in Brunswick, a suburb next to Princess Hill, Fitzroy North and Parkville. It is populated by yuppies who embraced the Australian coffee culture. Sydney road has been designated by its LGA as one of the roads to be converted to a promenade - a pedestrain walking strip with trendy cafes, restaurants and also shopping outlets. It is set to be the ‘chapel street’ of the North.

There’s a limited opportunity to get into a boutique development along union street, beside the RMIT(Brunswick campus). With a 2-minute walk to Jewell train station, and being close to Barkley SC coupled with its proximity to Sydney road, this is as good as you can get being close to ‘action’.

There will be no lack of tenants wanting to rent close to the city. The lure of Italian restaurants along Lygon street is hard to resist; and if you wish, take a tram along Sydney road to the city. It only takes 10 minutes and you will be swarmed by more restaurants at the Crown Casino. Walk along the Yarra river and look back to the city; it is a stunning sight in a class of its own.

Opportunities are limited! It may or may not suit your portfolio requirements. Call me today for a no-obligation consultation…

It was winter in Melbourne when I arrived on the 7th June after a stopover at Darwin. It was not until I step into my business partner’s apartment at 80 Lorimer Street that I realized how beautiful the views over Victoria Harbour can be. It’s stunning, particularly with the sun glazing down over the chilly wind in winter Melbourne, voted as one of the most liveable cities in the world.

Nested in Lorimer St are five towers built by one of Australia’s biggest developer. You could see the standard of the finishing once you walked into the apartment. Nicely laid quality carpets, stone benchtops, exclusive vanities used in all the toilets/bathrooms and not forgetting the huge 42′ LCD TV in the living room for pure entertainment. It’s city living at its best!

It just cannot get any better, being so close to the CBD; in fact just 2 minutes away and close to water.

There is a freeway running parallel to Lorimer St but mate, I could hardly hear anything when the windows are closed. Windows are double-glazed and strict building standards says it all.

To put it simply, I wouldn’t mind going back there in September again…oh..how I missed the excellent weather.

The scene at the Docklands is certainly one of beauty. Compared to my last visit in 2005, the Docklands have come up very well indeed. The stadium village where the telstra drome is the centre of attraction, a place where major sporting events are held, like Aussie Rules, etc has its own unique appeal.

Being close to Victoria Harbour, the Docklands offer residents who wants a combination of both city living and close to water. To me, it is a dream come true. As a city boy, it is not easy to be close to water and yet in the city. People pay a lot to be close to water but if it is right in the heart of the city, you can’t get any better.

While at the restaurants and cafes in the Docklands, I marvelled at how the city skyline has changed in the past few years. More quality developments emerged. Iconic building start to dominate and fancy yachts are founds parking right on the waterfront, beside the restaurants. To say it is a beautiful scene is really an understatement.

With city living becoming popular amongst the generation Y, Z and the seachangers, developments around and in the Docklands are in great demand. Pan Urban is developing the Lacrosse after a successful spell with Watergate. Lend Lease is building Mosaic etc…

With Suncorp, the insurance giant relocating from the Melbourne CBD to the Docklands, the Docklands have its own commercial appeal. It can only be good for property investors. With only a limited amount of space for development, every inch in the Docklands will be utilized to realize its fullest potential.

Like my property guru said, ‘you cannot go wrong if you hold it for the long term’. I am sure many seasoned investors will agree with me the same can be said for the Docklands.

I had the opportunity of viewing Chevron Green when I was down in Melbourne last week. I couldn’t understand the reason why it has taken longer than usual for the project to sell out, considering the fact the project is located along St. Kilda Road and with close proximity to the city and to the famous and highly popular fitzroy street where restaurants and cafes are located.

The project was marketed over the weekend in Singapore by another marketing company. I have gotten the price list directly from the developer and the developer is paying full stamp duties for purchasers.

If anyone wants to have developer’s price, contact me at 98344408 immediately.

Once again after much media and analyst speculation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today just announced that the official interest rate will increase by 0.25% making the base cash rate 7.00%pa. This is now the eleventh consecutive increase.

The primary reason behind this increase is the RBA’s commitment to keep inflation under control.

This means that the average standard variable rate will change shortly to 9.02%pa. For each $100,000 of your mortgage this will increase repayments by approximately $4.80 per week.

Indicatively the best fixed rates as of today will be about 8.20% fixed for two (2) or three (3) years.

For an article in The Age about the increase please click_here